Data Center Onsite Power: Reality Check

Navigate supply chain constraints, delivery timelines, and geographic complexity with current market data

Analysis of 100+ projects
Cost data updated monthly
Based on Dec 2025 market conditions

The market for onsite data center power has fundamentally changed. Gas turbine deliveries pushed to 2029-2030. Equipment costs up 200-300% since 2022. This tool shows what's actually achievable in today's supply-constrained environment.

What's Actually Available in Your Timeline

Emergency (0-12 months)

Fuel Cells

✓ Available

Timeline: 90-120 days

Vendors: Bloom Energy, Mainspring

Status: 100MW+ proven deployments

Example: Equinix 100MW across 19 facilities

Reciprocating Engines

⚠ Tight

Timeline: 12-18 months minimum

Vendors: Caterpillar, Jenbacher, Clarke Energy

Status: Lead times increasing

Example: May miss your deadline

Gas Turbines

✗ Not Possible

Timeline: Earliest delivery: 2029

Vendors: GE Vernova, Mitsubishi, Siemens

Status: 3-7 year wait times

Example: Not possible for your timeline

Compare Real Scenarios (Not Theoretical Specs)

SPEED PRIORITY

Fuel Cell Deployment

Timeline: 90-120 days from order
Capital Cost: $2,800-3,200/kW
Operating Cost: Low
Power Density: 100 MW/acre
Reliability: 99.9-99.999%
Emissions: Near-zero NOx
Fuel Flexibility: Natural gas → H2 ready
✓ Best For:
  • • Emergency deployment
  • • California non-attainment zones
  • • High-value compute (AI training)
  • • Sites requiring fast permitting
⚠ Considerations:
  • • Higher capital cost
  • • Limited >100MW single-site experience
  • • Technology still scaling
💰 Time Value Impact:

Operational 2-3 years before engines, 4-6 years before turbines = significant additional revenue

Real Example: Equinix: 100MW across 19 data centers. Bloom Energy deployment: 90-day cycles

BALANCED APPROACH

Reciprocating Engine Deployment

Timeline: 12-24 months (increasing)
Capital Cost: $1,800-2,200/kW
Operating Cost: Moderate
Power Density: 50 MW/acre
Reliability: 99.5-99.9%
Emissions: Low (with controls)
Fuel Flexibility: Gas/H2/biogas capable
✓ Best For:
  • • 12-24 month planning horizon
  • • Cost-conscious projects
  • • Proven technology preference
  • • Hybrid with battery storage
⚠ Considerations:
  • • Wait times increasing (12→24 months)
  • • Moderate emissions (CA permitting slower)
  • • Requires NOx controls in some areas
💰 Time Value Impact:

18-month delay vs fuel cells = lost revenue. Still 3-4 years faster than turbines

Real Example: Caterpillar G3520K: 4GW Utah facility. First phase operational 2026

TRADITIONAL PATH

Gas Turbine Deployment

Timeline: 2028-2030 delivery
Capital Cost: $2,200-2,500/kW (rising)
Operating Cost: Moderate
Power Density: 75 MW/acre
Reliability: 99.9%
Emissions: Moderate
Fuel Flexibility: Limited
✓ Best For:
  • • Very large scale (>200MW)
  • • Long-term planning (>3 years)
  • • Dedicated infrastructure projects
  • • Combined cycle efficiency priority
⚠ Considerations:
  • • 3-7 year delivery wait
  • • Costs up 200-300% since 2022
  • • Big Three manufacturers rationing supply
  • • Queue jumping requires premium pricing
💰 Time Value Impact:

4-6 year delay vs alternatives = massive lost compute revenue. Higher risk of cost escalation

Real Example: Meta Ohio: $1.6B, 200MW. Dedicated pipeline, 24+ month build

How Location Changes Everything

What Waiting Actually Costs You

10 MW500 MW
$50k$300k (AI compute pricing)

5-Year Revenue Comparison

Fuel Cells (90-day deployment)

Operational:
90 days from order
5-year revenue:
$900.0M
CapEx premium:
+$100.0M vs engines
Net advantage:
$600.0M
Faster revenue offsets higher cost

Reciprocating Engines (18-month deployment)

Operational:
18 months from order
5-year revenue:
$630.0M
Revenue lost vs fuel cells:
-$270.0M
CapEx savings:
$100.0M

Gas Turbines (2029 delivery)

Operational:
2029 delivery
5-year revenue:
$180.0M
Revenue lost vs fuel cells:
-$720.0M
MASSIVE opportunity cost
CapEx:
$235.0M (costs rising)
💡 Key Insight:

Even with $100.0M higher capital cost, fuel cells generate $600.0M more net value over 5 years due to earlier deployment. In AI infrastructure, time is money.

Who's Actually Taking Orders

FUEL CELLS

✓ Currently Accepting Orders:

  • Bloom Energy - 90-day deployment, 100MW+ proven deployments
  • Mainspring Energy - Linear generator, near-zero emissions
📊 Market Status:
  • • Growing backlog but capacity expanding
  • • Pennsylvania manufacturing facility opening
  • • $258M Series F funding (Apr 2025)
Lead Time Trend: STABLE (90-120 days)

RECIPROCATING ENGINES

✓ Currently Accepting Orders:

  • Caterpillar - $725M expansion investment
  • Jenbacher - 3.3MW J620, <45 sec startup
  • Clarke Energy - Hybrid battery+engine configs
  • 2G Energy - Hydrogen-ready CHP systems
📊 Market Status:
  • • Strong demand, lead times increasing
  • • Previously 12 months → now 12-24 months
Lead Time Trend: INCREASING

GAS TURBINES

⚠ Limited Availability:

  • GE Vernova - Deliveries past 2029
  • Siemens Energy - $148B backlog
  • Mitsubishi Power - 2030 deliveries, 36% market share
📊 Market Status:
  • • Big Three rationing supply
  • • Premium pricing for queue jumping
  • • Costs up 200-300% since 2022
Lead Time Trend: STABLE AT 3-7 YEARS

Get Your State-Specific Market Brief

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Your State permitting requirements and realistic timelines
Vendor contacts currently accepting 0-12 month projects
Cost estimates updated for December 2025
Sample RFP language from recent deployments
Regulatory compliance checklist
Monthly market updates as conditions change

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